Armed violence between Israel and Hamas were a prelude to attack Iran, U.S. sources said. Military analysts say the theater of war operations were established many months before and now witnessing their implementation in three main phases. INCLUDING NUCLEAR WAR.
The conflict from recent weeks seems to be only an episode in a war that periodically restart but hiding, this time, another strategic agenda, according to U.S. and Israeli officials, quoted by the New York Times. If it were a rehearsal for a future military conflict with Iran, the Iranian missile will be tested to improved precision that can reach Jerusalem, but also new missile systems.
Iran is the main problem of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama. While not agree on tactics, both officials said that is time – in probably several months- to resolve the matter with the Iranian nuclear program.
A key aspect of the war would be the annihilation of Iran’s ability to introduce next-generation rockets in Gaza and Lebanon, where they can be launched by Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, in case of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
PHASE 1: Invasion of Gaza and destroy rocket launchers (November 2012)
Military analysts are unanimously agreed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu overshadowed plans attack on Iran, to mot affect the campaign in the United States, completed in early November. Immediately after the election of Barack Obama, Israel passed the military challenges, including sending tanks into Gaza on November 8, which resulted in the murder of a Palestinian child. Subsequently, four civilians were killed and another 38 wounded.
The trigger for military conflict was the assassination of Hamas military leader, Ahmed Jabari, Israel launched a missile using a drone. The immediate reaction of Hamas was a massive bombing campaign with long-range missiles that exploded in residential areas near Gaza.
Analysts say Israel has thus obtained political support to justify a total offensive in Gaza, in order to completely disarm Hamas military bases. The strategy has worked so far, analysts estimating that a ground attack in Gaza is imminent, despite the recent ceasefire ended. Israel continues to gain popular support for the war. 100,000 troops are massage on the border with Gaza, being prepared for a invaţize.
British experts from marketoracle.co.uk estimated that Phase 1 of the war will not last more than a month and expected losses would be a total of 2,000 Palestinian lives, while Israel would lose only 30 soldiers, figures available at last offensive in Gaza in 2009.
Phase 2: The Invasion of Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah (December 2012)
Destroying the Hamas military capability in Gaza, following Israel’s concern will be to create a buffer zone in the north, on the border with Lebanon. This requires disarming Hezbollah militants, the scenario is the same: provide challenge, followed by a reaction with rockets from southern Lebanon concluded a land offensive of Israel.
Marketoracle.co.uk analysts predict that Hezbollah leaders would become targets of drone killings as happened in the case of Hamas. Experts predict, for Phase 2, following losses, as previous confrontations 2006: 1,500 deaths among Lebanese (mostly civilians) and 150 deaths in Israel right (most soldiers).
Phase 3 – Attack on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure (January 2013)
The authors for this scenario note further that an attack on Iran could take place in January 2013, up to the general elections in Israel. It will follow immediately after the climax of the offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, to put the maximum pressure on group.
Since most Iranian nuclear capacity is underground in a tunnel dug into the mountain, military analysts predict that will be used for low ground forces and nuclear missiles will explode deep underground, melting the infrastructure.
The authors of scenarios also take into account the possibility that Iran will choose to strike before Israel’s offensive, concluding that invasion is imminent and an Israeli airstrike would reduce responsiveness than military.
But for Iran, the main problem of the onset of the first attack against Israel is attracting the United States in the war, witch will react immediately to defend their ally. But Iran’s strategic calculations may conclude that whether or not the first attack, the effects would be the same anyway because Israeli air bombardment would cause massive destruction that would destroy the ability to respond. A whole would benefit Iran if they expect to be attacked: supporting a nation increasingly difficult to keep in check because of economic problems and hyperinflation.
There is a third scenario the deployment theater of war in the Middle East. A third way would be Iran’s decision to comply with the UN resolution to halt its nuclear program. But this possibility does not exist yet no visible sign. Moreover, it is expected to intensify Iran’s nuclear program, Israel to send a warning, as it did a decade ago India in its conflict with Pakistan.
In conclusion, most experts agree that assist in the implementation of strategic plans established long ago by Israel’s political and military elite. Offensive in Gaza, then in southern Lebanon are steps run true purpose: Iran nuclear disarmament. Experts predict that Israel thought a deployable ending in January 2013, military success allowing Netanyahu to win elections.
Analysts quoted by marketoracle.co.uk say, however, that Israel has not considered likely not very big, but real, as this war to expand, becoming one world war. Israel might be surprised to U.S. strategic priorities aimed at areas other than the Middle East. In this sense, we are witnessing a very deep conflict, elusive, the Pacific and East Asia, where China disputes Japan’s right on two islands. It’s actually a signal that China shakes the strategic balance in the Pacific, which the U.S. has dominated it from the end of World War II. Thus it is possible, analysts say, as a major conflict in the Middle East to allow China to take advantage of the situation and counterattack in East Asia. And the U.S. would remain cautious to not be distracted.
Estimating the likelihood of a nuclear war in the Middle East
Invasion of Gaza – 90%.
Invasion of Lebanon – 70%.
A conventional attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure before the end of January 2013 – 65%.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons against nuclear infrastructure, deep, Iran – 40%.
Iran probability to reach an agreement with the U.S. and UN to disarm before being attacked – 20%.
A Palestinian was killed and another 10 injured by Israeli soldiers on Friday near the border with Gaza, the first incident after the declaration of ceasefire between Hamas and Israel on Wednesday evening. Israelis have confirmed that they fired only “warning shots” after seeing a group of people headed for the border and seemed to want to protest.
During the Israeli air offensive launched on November 14 in Gaza, 163 Palestinians were killed and 1,235 wounded, according to an interim report. Six Israelis, including two soldiers, were killed and 240 were injured in attacks by Palestinian missiles on southern Israel.
49% of Israelis think Gaza operation should continue, while 31% said they were pro-amnesty